This post presents both a visual and tabular nearly 360 degree view of domestic and international, equity and bond markets. The images below show 1-year price performance of key asset types and their proxy funds.
A tabular view of total return for those same proxy funds for 1-week, 4-weeks, 13-weeks, 26-weeks and 52-weeks is available on our site. That tabular view, along with numerous other tables, is update weekly on Saturday mornings.
click images to enlarge
CBOE Volatility Index: Panic 2008
The VIX is an important measure of investor complacency (low) or fear (high).
Begun in 1986, it has never reached the levels of fear we see today — not in 1987, not in 1998, not in 2000 and not in 2001. The next closest reading was during the October 1987 crash.
SPY: US Stocks
US stocks seem to be trying harder to form a base than other categories. The losses so far this year have not been seen since the Great Depression (see our prior article with history since 1927).
EFA: Non-US Developed Markets Stocks
EEM: Emerging Markets Stocks
VNQ: US Equity REITs
REITs appeared to be recovering in February, March and May, then fell back until July, then appeared to be stabilizing at somewhat higher levels during August and September; then simply took a nose dive. They are still falling knives.
DJ-AIG Commodity Index (proxy DJP)
Commodities fell substantially in unison like dominoes in July. Oil fell, reducing demand for ethanol which reduced demand for corn. Base metals fell in demand as the economy slowed. Gold fell in value as the Dollar rose. Platinum fell as auto sales declined which reduced demand for platinum for catalytic converters.
AGG: US Bonds (>12-months and ex muni)
Bonds, the traditional volatility moderator, declined in September and took a nose dive in October, but appear to be recovering after numerous US and international government actions to restore credit market liquidity.
MUB: Municipal Bonds
IEF: Intermediate Treasuries
Intermediate US Treasuries have been choppy, but are up for the year as credit risk-free (but interest rate sensitive) investments. While the bonds are credit risk-free, the massive monetary expansion by the US government may ultimately stimulate inflation which puts the purchasing powers of bonds are risk.
SHV: Short-Term Treasuries
Short-term Treasuries are the only safe, although low return, asset available. Of course, that’s the way it is normally.
TIP: Inflation Protected US Treasuries
Inflation protected US Treasuries are down. Whether due to a lack of confidence, locked up markets, or the perception of deflation, we don’t know.
HYG: High Yield Bonds
Junk bonds trade like junk. As risk-aversion grows, junk bond values fall.
BWX: Intl Investment Grade Treasury Bonds
Investment grade international Treasuries have not held up as well as US Treasuries. The US Dollar and the US government promise to pay continues to be the the safe harbor in times of crisis.
UUP: US Dollar Index
The US Dollar and crude oil moved in opposite directions since July. Gold was choppier, but in the end moved opposite the US Dollar as well.
USO: Crude Oil
GLD: Gold Bullion
China began to decline first, then India (both net energy consumers), then later Russia and Brazil (both energy exporters). Russia and Brazil both began their decline before crude oil began its decline.
FXI: China
INP: India
EWZ: Brazil
RSX: Russia
Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC