Archive for June, 2007

Currency Investments - Central Bank Rates

Wednesday, June 6th, 2007

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If you include direct currency exposure in your portfolio as an asset class or a hedge, you need to be aware of the interest rates of key central banks among other things.  You should also be aware of the names of the key banks and their governors so that you can recognize news references to them or to “Google” information about them.

Here is a table listing the central banks, bank governors and bank web addresses for key currencies:

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Some of you do direct FX trading in the spot market.  Others of you do FX trading in the futures market.  Yet others of you do FX trading or investing through the various ETFs and ETNs available today.

We recommend that if you wish to hold foreign currency (presumably as a hedge within you cash account) that you do so through a spot FX trading account through a major bank (not a non-bank broker).  Spot FX has the lowest transactions costs, no management fees and current interest income.  On the negative side, spot FX accounts are general assets of the bank or broker and are at risk in the event of the bankruptcy of the bank or broker — that’s why you should use a major bank.

If you chose to hold foreign currency through a fund, we recommend using an ETN, if available, because off the tax efficiency of capitalized income and perfect tracking, less management fees.  Both ETNs and ETFs tend currently to suffer from low liquidity. 

Spot FX is larger than all other markets (stock and bond combined) and is equivalent to several trillion dollars per day.  Spot accounts, however, require establishing a separate account which many people find too inconvenient.  For them the ETN or ETF route is possible conveniently through their stock broker.

Here is a table of the currency available ETFs and ETNs:

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Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
Registered Invesment Advisor

Disclosure:  Author does not own any listed security (author uses spot FX account)

“BuyWrite” - Covered Call Strategy

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

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There are many funds today offering some version of covered call strategy (BuyWrite strategy). We have been asked “What do they do?” and “Are they a good addition to a diversified and allocated portfolio?”

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Classification Problem:

The funds’ approaches vary from generally passive to aggressively active. Some work with underlying indices and some work with actively selected stock portfolios. Some use covered calls on their entire portfolio all of the time, while other use covered calls on part of their portfolio part of the time. Some only sell calls, while some also buy puts to protect against major losses. Some pay distributions and some do not. Some do other things that may or may not be clear to investors or consistent from period-to-period.

These issues point to one of the pitfalls of classifying funds, particularly actively managed funds that provide wide manager flexibility. It is important to look beyond the fund category and fund name to the specifics of what a fund does.

Some funds in the category may do extremely well or extremely badly, but unless they follow the pure strategy, it is difficult to attribute the return to covered calls versus the other methods simultaneously used in the portfolio.

Pure Strategy Funds:

In this report, we will strip away those return attribution uncertainties by focusing on two funds (BEP and BWV) that purport to strictly adhere to the covered call strategy on the S&P 500 index as described by the CBOE benchmark (BXM). [fund descriptions at end of article]

What does “BuyWrite” mean? (from the CBOE website)

“A ‘Buy-Write’ strategy generally is considered to be an investment strategy in which an investor buys a stock or a basket of stocks, and also writes covered call options that correspond to the stock or basket of stocks.

Buy-Write strategies provide option premium income that can help cushion downside moves in an equity portfolio, but Buy-Writes often under perform stocks in rising markets [because the calls cap the potential gains on the underlying portfolio]. Thus, some Buy-Write strategies significantly outperformed stocks in 2000 when stock prices fell, but Buy-Writes tended to under perform stocks in the years 1995 - 1998 when the S&P 500 rose by more than 20% per year.

Buy-Write strategies have an added attraction to some investors in that Buy-Writes can help lessen the overall volatility in many portfolios.”

Are there benchmarks?

The CBOE created the S&P 500 BuyWrite (symbol BXM) index in 2002. That is the gold standard to evaluate the returns of covered call funds.

How well does the strategy work? (CBOE site)

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“In September 2004 the Ibbotson Associates consulting firm issued a case study on the investment strategy represented by the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index. The study was three-fold: 1) assess risk-adjusted performance of the BXM; 2) evaluate the role of this covered-call strategy in a portfolio; and 3) establish if an investor can implement the strategy.”

A four page summary of the Ibbtoson study is available for download. Ibbotson found higher returns and much lower volatility for a the BuyWrite index versus the S&P 500 alone.

Along the same lines, Callan Associates did a study of the 18 year history of BXM through 08/07 (download report). CBOE says in reference to the report:

“The BXM underperformed the S&P 500 during most rising equity markets and consistently outperformed the S&P 500 in all periods of declining equity markets, demonstrating the return cushion provided by income from writing the calls.

The BXM generates a return pattern different from that of the S&P 500, offering a source of potential diversification. The addition of the BXM to a diversified investor portfolio would have generated significant improvement in risk-adjusted performance over the past 18 years.”

[from Barclay’s iPathETN site] On a 5-year basis BXM returned 9.31% annually and had a standard deviation of 5.71%, while the S&P 500 returned 12.39% and had a standard deviation of 8.18%.

Over 5 years the approximate Sharpe ratio (return in excess of risk free return divided by standard deviation) is approximately equal for the both approaches.

The return differences over various time periods are shown below.

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Cyclic nature of the strategy: (charts from Barclays iPathETN site)

The charts below shows the rolling 5-year returns and 5-year rolling standard deviaitons of the BXM versus the S&P 500, illustrating the cyclic nature of the strategy.

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Similarly, the chart below shows the call premiums as a percent of the underlying index, showing the cyclic nature of the opportunity to develop strong credits though the strategy.

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The charts confirm the Ibottson and Callan studies. In flat or declining markets, the BXM outperforms the S&P 500. In strongly rising markets, the S&P 500 outperforms the BXM. However, in all periods the BXM provides a lower volatility.

How do BEP and BWV perform?

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We plotted only BXM and BEP, because BWV has almost no history.  However, BWV is a contractual obligation to exactly track BXM, less the 75 basis annual management fee.  Therefore, you can see the BWV will be a more steady performer (this presumes that www.stockCharts.com plotted total return for BEP and not just price).

Our Recommendation:

YES to BEP and BWV during certain phases of market cycle. We would favor BWV or BEP.

NO to other funds that follow complex, difficult to understand strategies.

The covered call strategy is a conservative strategy with increasing appropriateness for investors as they grow older, when volatility is a bigger issue.

Our Logic:

We tend to favor active management of index funds over use of actively managed funds.  That minimizes overhap of holdings and allows us to know more clearly what we are buying and why. To the extent that actively managed funds are used, we favor those with a clearly expressed and transparent process with leeway constraints that cause them to invest in the same way that they describe themselves in their fund name and short summaries.

Based on our philosophy, we favor BEP and BWV. They pursue the pure strategy. We can buy them and be confident of what they seek to do for our portfolio. We would tend deploy them in flat to declining markets and tend to avoid them in strongly rising markets.

We favor BMV over BEP for three reasons:

  • BMV 75 basis point management fee that is 32 basis points lower than BEP,
  • it will perfectly track the BXM less fees by operation of the debenture contract, and
  • it will not create current taxation, which should be more tax efficient.

BEP as you can see from the chart is having some difficulty with tracking error, has a higher expense ratio and generates current ordinary tax rate income.

We would avoid those covered call category funds that are actively managed and that also pursue various other strategies, until and unless they have at least 5 years of history under the same portfolio manager.

If we are looking for an index covered call method, we would also avoid those covered call category funds that seem to be there simply because no other category fits, but which are engaged in number of other practices that we may not understand or that can vary from period-to-period. We do not believe in chasing performance in and of itself. We require that we understand why and how money is being made.

For the same reason that Warren Buffet will not buy a company whose business is too hard to understand, we will not buy a fund whose process is too hard to understand. Exotic methods are often just a marketing gimmick and justification for higher fees.

Lastly, many covered call category funds are quite illiquid with spotty intra-day trading opportunities and very wide Bid/Ask spreads. Significant investors would possibly move the market by the transactions. Both BEP and BWV suffer from liquidity problems at this stage too.

For those who manage their own money intensively, buying an S&P index fund such as SPY (8 basis point expense ratio) and their own calls, may be a more cost effective approach.

We have not attempted yet to determine if the tax efficiency of the BWV pays for the 75 basis point management fee. The BWV fee does, however, allow the investor to devote time to other questions, to avoid the necessary continuing attention to process and to avoid the transaction costs of call writing.

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
Registered Investment Advisor

Disclosure: author does not own any security mentioned.

Fund descriptions from the sponsor’s sites:

BEP: The Fund’s investment objective is to seek total returns through a covered call strategy that seeks to approximate the performance, less fees and expenses, of the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite. The Fund will pursue its investment objective principally through a two-part strategy. First, the Fund will invest the proceeds in all of the common stocks included in the S&P 500 Index weighted in the same proportions as the S&P 500 Index and/or other investments that have economic characteristics similar to the securities that comprise that Index. Second, each calendar month during the term of the Fund, the Fund will write (sell) one-month call options on the S&P 500 Index (”Written Options”).

BWV: iPath Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) are senior, unsubordinated, unsecured debt securities issued by Barclays Bank PLC delivering exposure to the returns of a market or strategy with the trading flexibility of an equity. Investors can trade iPath ETNs on an exchange at market price or receive a cash payment at the scheduled maturity or at early redemption, based on the performance of the index, less investor fees. The iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN offers investors cost-effective and tax-efficient exposure to the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index, commonly known as the BXM Index (the “Index”). The Index is designed to measure the total rate of return of a hypothetical “buy-write”, or “covered call”, strategy on the S&P 500 Index. This strategy consists of a hypothetical portfolio consisting of a “long” position indexed to the S&P 500 Index (i.e. purchasing the common stocks included in the S&P 500 Index) and the sale of a succession of one-month, at– or slightly out-of-the-money S&P 500 Index call options that are listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (”CBOE”).

Turkey Fund & War Risk

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

In mid-April, we wrote that the Turkey Fund (TKF) was probably not a great choice given the political struggle between the secuclar and Islamist parties in the then upcoming elections.  [Is It Time To Talk Turkey Fund? Not Yet (April 16, 2007)]

TKF was still doing OK relative to the US markets (SPY), the developed international markets (EFA) and the emerging markets (EEM or VWO).  The premium to net asset value was about 6% compared to an historical median of about 7%.

Things have deteriorated since then.  The fund is now at a discount to NAV and its price performance is laggind SPY, EFA, and EEM or VWO, as these charts from ETFconnect and BigCharts demonstrate.

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The elections have come and gone, the military did not stage a secular coup, the Islamist party did not gain full power and things seem a bit status quo, EXCEPT that the new French president has vowed to block Turkish entry into the EU and the prospect of a military incursion by Turkey into northern Iraq is growing allegedly due to Kurdish attacks from Iraq onto Turkish soil against Turkish military personnel.  These are not favorable factors for valuation ratios.

We think discretion is the better part of valor here and that emerging country funds with less volatile geopolitics should be sought for all but the most risk tolerant at this time.

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
Registered Investment Advisor

Disclosure: author owns EFA ad VWO 

“Turkish Investment Fund is a closed-end management investment company. The Fund seeks long term capital appreciation. The Fund will invest at least 80% of assets in equity securities of Turkish companies. The remainder may be invested in dollar and lira denominated debt securities.” [from ETFconnect]

Extraordinary Investment Risks in Russia

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

Russian shares have been extremely profitable for investors in recent years. Direct investment in Russian by oil companies have been more of a mixed story. Russian policy toward foreign capital has been inviting in the past, but is it still so? Is the Russian stock market exposed to levels of uncertainty due to political event risks such that greater caution is warranted? … We think so.

The Good News:

The ride so far has been great. This chart of the daily closing prices for the Russian Stock Exchange since 1995 shows its phenomenal rise to approximately 20 times its initial value.

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Over the past 5 years the Russian index and the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) managed by the noted manager Mark. Mobius has produced more than 5 times the gain of the Russell 3000 (proxy IWV), as shown in this chart.

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Until recently over the past 3 years, Russia (proxy TRF or RSX) has outperformed China (proxy FXI or GXC), Brazil (proxy EWZ) and India (proxy INP or IFN or IIF), and has clobbered the U.S. Russell 3000 (proxy IWV).

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In the recent 200-day history however, China has massively outperformed Russia, the other BRIC countries and the U.S. Only the U.S. market underperformed the Russia index.

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The Bad News:

Russia is becoming hostile to both foreign investors and private capital. Putin has not gone to the length of Chavez in Venezuela to nationalize key industries, but he has leaned in that direction. Being more adept than Chavez, Putin has obscured his energy nationalization program with:

  • demands for unproven back taxes to destroy domestic companies (Yukos), and
  • plans to revoke BP’s license on its $6 billion investment in TNK due to alleged production violations, and
  • alleged environmental violations by Shell that will require license revocation for its Sakhalin project unless it transfers a large share to Gazprom the government controlled company – funny how the environmental problem goes away after Putin expropriates billons in value from a foreign investor

We have seen Russia use its gas supplies to threaten first a former satellite two winters ago, and again this past winter it effectively threatened Western Europe with freezing. Now it is talking about pointing missiles at Europe.

If Russia is already stealing assets from foreign direct investors, and bullying neighboring nations with energy policy and military threats, how long will it take for it to find ways to steal money from foreign stock market investors? It is already doing so to the extent that value is being expropriated from oil companies that are somewhere in most of you’re portfolios. Does this sound like a great place to put your hard earned money? Aren’t there other high growth options that do not have such extraordinary political risks?

Here are some recent press comments relevant to investment in Russia:

“Investors will be asking if capitalism is a one-way ticket [money into Russian, but not back out] … how far [is] Russia is prepared to embrace western capitalism. … it wants to seize back resource assets that had passed into control of foreign companies. … A number of investment banks and western companies have set up shop in Russia, but they remain skeptical over their long-term prospects”.
Times Online (UK)

“ ‘Everybody talks about what Hugo Chavez is doing in Venezuela but nobody makes the comparison with Putin. It is basically the same thing’ said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer in New York.”
Petroleum World (Venezuela )

“Analysts say that Russia’s stock market is on the threshold of the pre-election period. Drastic fluctuations of share quotations are typical for it, because of long-term investors’ apprehensions.”
Kommersant (Russia)

“On a political and business level, deep distrust has grown among western countries – particularly in America – over the Kremlin’s creeping repatriation of some of its major resources. First with Shell and now with BP, President Vladimir Putin’s desire to put assets back under state control has understandably made investors nervous about their exposure to Russian resource stocks.”
Times Online (UK)

“President Vladimir Putin said Russia would go back to its Cold War stance of aiming its missiles at Europe if Washington went ahead with a plan to build a missile defence shield near Russia’s borders. … [he] said Moscow would not be responsible for the consequences because Washington had started the escalation”.
The Age (Australia)

The big gains in the Russian stock market could well be more history than future. The political risks to your wealth in Russia are much greater now than they were perceived to be a few years ago. We think a touch of Russian exposure in a multi-country emerging economies fund such as EEM or VWO is OK, but we think discretion is the better part of valor when it come to significant investments in Russia.

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC
Registered Investment Advisor

Disclosure: author owns VWO, EWZ and IWV

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Prior Emerging Market Articles

Monday, June 4th, 2007

We have previously posted several articles about emerging markets at SeekingAlpha.  They are listed here.

Is It Time To Talk Turkey Fund? Not Yet
(April 16, 2007)

Tilting Your Emerging Market Exposure
(April 4, 2007)

Does Baidu.com Have the Key to Chinese Internet Success?
(March 21, 2007)

Making Sense of Chinese Markets
(February 12, 2007)

Shadowed By the China Craze, India Outperforms
(February 5, 2007)

Outstanding International ETFs: Austria, South Africa and Korea
(February 1, 2007)

Is China Growing Old Before It Grows Rich?
(January 31, 2007)

Why Are Emerging Market Prices So Volatile?
(January 30, 2007)

International ETFs: Correlations with Broad U.S. Market
(January 30, 2007)

Investment Implications of China’s Satellite Killer
(January 22, 2007)

Foreign Banks Granted Authority to Incorporate Locally in China
(December 26, 2006)